Câu hỏi: If a series, yt, follows a random walk (with no drift), what is the optimal 1-step ahead forecast for y?

A. The current value of y

B. Zero

C. The historical unweighted average of y

D. An exponentially weighted average of previous values of y

Câu 1: If a series, yt, follows a random walk (with no drift), what is the optimal 1-step ahead forecast for y?

A. The current value of y

B. Zero

C. The historical unweighted average of y

D. An exponentially weighted average of previous values of y

Câu 2: If a Johansen “max” test for a null hypothesis of 1 cointegrating vectors is applied to a system containing 4 variables is conducted, which eigenvalues would be used in the test?

A. The largest 1

B. The Second largest

C. The Second smallest

D. The smallest

Câu 3: A process, xt, which has a constant mean and variance, and zero autocovariance for all non-zero lags is best described as:

A. A white noise process

B. A covariance stationary process

C. An autocorrelated process

D. A moving average process

Câu 4: Which of the following would probably NOT be a potential “cure” for non-normal residuals?

A. Transforming two explanatory variables into a ratio

B. Removing large positive residuals

C. Using a procedure for estimation and inference which did not assume normality

D. Removing large negative residuals

Câu 5: What is the optimal three-step ahead forecast from the AR(2) model given in question 14?

A. -0.1

B. 0.27

C. -0.34

D. -0.31

Câu 6: If a residual series is negatively autocorrelated, which one of the following is the most likely value of the Durbin Watson statistic?

A. Close to zero

B. Close to two

C. Close to four

D. Close to one